MEMORANDUM on Iran Deal

MEMORANDUM

TO: Donald Trump, President

FROM: Adeline Tavarez, Student

DATE: May 7^nd, 2018

SUBJECT: Memorandum on US Policy on Iran Deal

Introduction

Pulling out of an accord, such as the Iran deal, isn’t as easy as just deciding that a country like the United States will be out. When deciding whether or not to gut the deal, President Trump must consider all the consequences that could follow. The purpose of this memo will be to advise Trump on why he should not pull out from this deal. It will highlight the benefits of the deal, but also bring to light the potential consequences and decisions that he will have to make if he decides to pull out.  

Context:

            Since the beginning of his candidacy, Trump has threatened to pull out of the Iran deal. According to Trump, the deal is too lenient and Iran has broken parts of the agreement. In Trump’s mind, he no longer sees the benefits of the United States being involved in this deal. The deal no longer meets the United States national security interest. However, to many, it seems that Trump would like to get rid of anything that would foster Obama’s legacy. According to Trump and his administration, Iran is not adding to regional and international peace and security. In fact, according to his administration, Iran is violating the terms of the deal by supporting militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

            Yet, many officials and US allies like the EU, France, Germany and Britain, urge Trump to respect and maintain the US in the agreement. They argue that the deal has been working to the extent that it was created for. It limits Iran’s military nuclear capability, which is extremely important to international peace and security. Along with that, Iran has been in compliance with the terms of the deal and has limited its use of nuclear capability. Most important, the deal allows a check and balance of the Iranian nuclear program and allows a close surveillance at all times.

Task

            One important question must be asked before deciding to fully get out of the agreement: what will replace it? One of the most important things that the Iran deal provides is a preventive measure in Iran’s nuclear capability. It allows inspections of their nuclear sites, which is extremely important to maintain. If Trump decides to exit the deal, a better solution must be put into place. However, as of right now, there isn’t one. My task is to advise Trump on what the United States has to lose and the consequences that can follow if he pulls out.

           

Evidence and Implementation

            One of the first consequences Trump could face in pulling out of the deal, is access to inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites, along with them limiting their nuclear capability. The US would immediately lose that if he pulled out. This is especially important since Iran has lied before about their use of military nuclear weapons. This could raise concern on whether or not there would be a threat of retaliation by ballistic missile tests or even more support of militant groups from Iran abroad. A second consequence to be aware of is the deal allows Iran to be more productive as a member in the international community. Pulling out of the deal could harm their business with the rest of the world, which wouldn’t fall lightly with the Iranian government. This would be a threat to diplomacy and international norms and relations. Lastly, if Trump exits the agreement, it could hard US relations with Iran and US allies. Pulling out could threaten future deals with Iran. It would be very difficult to get both the US and Iran back to a negotiation table. The US will be seen as not trust-worthy and filling empty promises. This is something that will hurt Trump and the US in the international community. US allies would also be hurt. Many of the other countries involved in the deal aren’t willing to follow suit and leave the deal, especially since they are urging Trump to stay in.

Closing Statement

            President Donald Trump should consider all the consequences that could follow if he decides to pull out of the deal by May 12^th. I have outlined some of them above, but that does not exclude some consequences that are yet to be discussed. If Iran has complied with the terms of the deal thus far, then I believe that the US should remain in the agreement. We are seeing more benefits of having the Iran deal, than if the deal were to be terminated.